New Fuel Standards are Law: At What Price?

President Bush recently signed the 806 page Renewable Fuels, Consumer Protection, and Energy Efficiency Act of 2007.

The new 35-mpg fuel economy standard spells change for an industry that has refused to invest in improved fuel economy for 30 years.

American car builders have long said they can't build fuel-efficient and alternative-fuel cars that are fast and big, the kind of cars we love.

Detroit, incongruously joined by Toyota, lobbied against raising fuel-efficiency and emissions requirements.

Now there is a 35 mpg rule, constructed very favorably for Detroit.

Could that be why Toyota opposed it?

Automakers now have 13 years to meet the goal.

The question is not whether cars can get 35 mpg, as they long could have, but: How much will it cost?

The new rule will require changes in engine technology representing billions in new plant and engineering.

Car makers are already hinting sticker prices will climb, possibly by as much as 15 percent, to offset the $120 billion cost of compliance.

In the near term, implementing currently available technology is easy. With the current US average hovering pathetically in the mid-20s, an additional 7 mpg is there almost for the taking.

Automakers have been using new technology to engage in a 1960's style horsepower race, but these same tools can be focused on fuel economy at little cost.

Aerodynamics offers the easiest angle, with so many boxy Model-T look-alikes on the streets.

Improved transmissions, which GM has resisted since the beginning, like six-speed automatic automatics and dual-clutch "manual" transmissions, can add maybe 3 mpg right out of the gate.

Electric power steering can quickly be implemented fleet-wide, an easy 1 mpg gain.

Taller highway gearing and reduced rolling-resistance tires cost little.

Existing cylinder deactivation technology is mature and can be expanded across entire product lines.

More aluminum, magnesium, and lighter steel can reduce unnecessary weight, a very significant gas waster.

In the mid term view, 5 to 8 years out, there will be development costs, but well thought out technologies will decline in cost once popularized.

Many features that were once "too expensive," like side curtain air bags, are standard on low priced cars.

Gasoline direct injection and turbocharging will need to be implemented to move close to the 35 miles per gallon goal by around 2018. Diesel, and diesel-electric hybrids, will be needed to power downsized, but still roomy, pickups and SUVs.

Detroit could have done this years ago, but prefers to stall.

I have repeatedly said we need to get hustling on the transportation system of the future. Too bad it takes legislation to get car makers moving.

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